(Originally posted to Twitter on January 13, 2022 – screen shots posted below.)
It's appearing increasingly likely that the Russians are going to remedy the "strategic depth" issue they perceive in eastern Ukraine – and probably much sooner than later.
As I have noted numerous times in recent months, Ukraine has but two options: accept their role as a buffer state between Russia and NATO, or be dismembered. It would now seem they have eschewed the former, and therefore they will cease to persist as presently constituted.
That said, I am convinced Russia
has no intention whatsoever to assimilate the entirety of Ukraine. Rather, I expect them to destroy Ukrainian
military capabilities, and to annex eastern Ukraine to the Dnieper River,
thereby also establishing a land bridge to Crimea.
What will be the US/NATO
response? Well, I consider it 99.99%
certain there will be no military response – none whatsoever. There is no way in hell the Pentagon is going
to risk having the myth of US military impregnability exposed in a futile
attempt to help Ukraine.
The US will thump its chest,
announce various "severe sanctions" (including excommunicating Russia
from SWIFT), and also attempt to impose a blockade of Russian energy exports to
Europe. But this will fail, for the
simple reason that Germany will not / cannot accede to it.
The US will command the world to
cease exporting to Russia a long list of items. Then a long parade of DC #ThinkTankMonkeys
will make the rounds of the MSM news channels confidently guaranteeing the
imminent destruction of the Russian economy and the end of the Putin era.
But most of the world will simply
ignore the toothless US edicts. Large
portions of SWIFT volume will move to alternative platforms (already in place);
trade settlement in USD will decrease dramatically, Nordstream2 will start
delivering gas to Germany before next winter; US sanctions on Russia will prove
utterly impotent; regional trade and currency blocs will rapidly gain market
share, and the hard reality of a new era of multipolarity and the effective end
of NATO and the once-mighty American empire will become undeniably apparent to
all.
